Category: insights

https://vimeo.com/432105685In this video Duygu Inceoz, Head of Investor Relations at Mavi, talks about the company’s relationship with Mobius Capital Partners. Since the investment manager joined the shareholder register in October 2018, it has worked closely with Mavi’s Board, management and wider stakeholders to help unlock additional value. Notable projects include additional transparency around a related party transaction and the introduction of a stock incentive scheme for senior management.Mavi is a leading Turkish apparel retail brand with global operations. It was originally born as a denim company in 1991, but later developed a broader clothing range.www.mavicompany.com

One of the most exciting aspects of being a global emerging market investor is the ability to follow companies, news flow, and trends throughout all continents. Since the start of the current pandemic, we have spoken to companies across sectors and geographies; be it in China, Vietnam, Korea, Egypt, South Africa, Poland or Brazil. It has been a fascinating experience to observe how corporates and countries have prepared, rapidly adapted and in some cases, are beginning to see green shoots of recovery.Whilst much has been written about the ESG implications of Covid-19, there has been little focus on how adhering to good corporate governance during the crisis impacts companies in the emerging and frontier universe. We believe the pandemic presents governance challenges and opportunities. We know from previous studies that companies with stronger governance benefit from a lower cost of capital and better operational performance.1 We argue that companies which demonstrate strong governance will weather this crisis more effectively, whilst the companies which fail to adapt and show robust leadership, may struggle to survive. We explain these issues by assessing and sharing our experiences on the following topics in emerging and frontier market companies: (1) long-term strategic horizons, and (2) the duty of the board of directors.1) Long-term strategic horizons: Many listed companies in emerging and frontier markets have some form of family ownership. In India, over 56% of the largest companies by revenue are family-controlled businesses. In 90% of these family businesses in India, there is managerial involvement by family members.2 One may ask why this is relevant. In a recent article in the Harvard Business Review, the authors stated, “through exercising their rights, family owners have the ability to position the company for long-term success or doom it to failure.”3 In a crisis like now, long-term thinking must not be underestimated; a privilege which many family businesses are poised to benefit from. Difficult decisions will have to be made from scaling down the workforce, reallocating capital to new priorities, and suspending dividend payments. Whilst some companies may be forced to take short-term measures to focus on the next quarter, we believe companies with an engaged and a long-term focused shareholder base (such as families) are better equipped to weather the crisis. Families are often focused on the next generation and not the next quarter. Many of these companies have weathered multiple crises before and their seasoned family members are able to share their retained learnings.In the Middle East, we spoke to one company where the Founder and Chairman has been in his position since 1993. He has sailed through multiple crises, including revolutions, terrorist attacks, and currency devaluations. The company rapidly provided an update to investors providing a detailed outline of how the company has adapted during Covid-19. With an outstanding management team, a strong balance sheet, and clear and transparent communication with shareholders, the company is well-positioned in the current crisis. The conservative approach taken by the controlling family for decades has also resulted in no workforce layoffs. Indeed, the Covid-19 crisis is unique, but a steady hand is an important strength, and in many cases should be viewed as an asset.2) The duty of the board of directors: Boards have been unable to convene like they have in previous crises and have had reduced interaction with management. Whilst management teams must be supported and should not be overburdened at this difficult time, letting accountability sweep under the carpet would be a negative outcome for all stakeholders. One of the dangers of leading through a crisis is the long-standing issue of conformity. Whilst family-controlled businesses in emerging markets offer many advantages, it is important that board members and in particular, independent directors are not afraid to challenge management during this crisis. The psychologist Irving Janis has argued that individuals are more susceptible to group thinking during a crisis in order to reach an agreement.Even outside of businesses where there is family involvement, many emerging market companies suffer from a lower percentage of independent directors compared to their developed market peers. Whilst there is evidence to suggest that board independence in many emerging markets has improved since the global financial crisis, let us not be fooled by the statistics. The various definitions of “independence” have almost become an orthodoxy globally. Yet they do not necessarily prevent board members from turning up (for the foreseeable future on Zoom) to board meetings having rigorously read the board materials, nor do they consider that “independent” directors do not always adequately challenge management.The risk of groupthink is a heightened risk during this crisis. We believe this could be mitigated by following the actions below:1) The role of the chairman: This is a time when the true leadership and capability of a chairman becomes evident. A chairman will find the right balance to work with the management team to see where the future of the company should be. Both the chairman and the CEO must agree on the future vision of the company. It is crucial that if the chairman position is not held by the CEO, management are sufficiently challenged and are pushed on strategic planning post-COVID-19. In the absence of an independent chairman, it is the duty of independent directors to ensure this occurs.2) Utilizing expertise: The board must contribute to the debate on the future of the company by providing experience from the past, in addition to their deep industry knowledge. It often takes a crisis to show if directors are the right fit for board and have a thorough understanding of the business and the industry of the company. A lack of debate across the board and acquiescence to what the CEO or the chairman say does not show true competence.3) Data: data analytics are more useful today than ever before: management must present frequent updates to the board about the performance of the business, not only in financial terms but also by demonstrating how the company is managing relationships with its customers and suppliers. The board can only develop a clear vision of the future by understanding where the stakeholders of the company are moving towards.4) Learning from peers: The board has a duty to challenge management and to assess peers in the industry on a global scale within their industry and niche: if management do not benchmark themselves to best in class industry practices, they should be challenged.Boards are ultimately responsible for the strategy of the business and more specifically, ought to be asking the following questions:

• Are employees healthy and safe? How have management teams assessed this?
• Have board members received a complete risk assessment of the implications of Covid-19 across all aspects of the business? Have they been able to confirm the resiliency of the business model they follow?
• Have P&L stress tests taken place which considers extreme scenarios?
• Does a separate board committee need to be established to address business continuity and contingency planning?
• Does the company have the liquidity it needs to weather the crisis?
• Is it prudent to pay a dividend or engage in buybacks?
• Should the company be re-investing in the business to prepare for the recovery? Where should capital be (re)allocated?
• Are managers clearly communicating with all employees? Are they leading by example and reducing their own compensation?
• How is the company thinking about the communities it is operating in?

We have found the majority of companies in our portfolio to be rising to the challenge and taking robust action. Boards have performed their supervisory function diligently and management teams have taken the necessary measures to secure the survival of the company. Despite boasting a solid balance sheet, in China, a QSR chain has reacted with caution and has suspended its dividend and buyback programme for the next two quarters. The board and management also went further and cut their compensation, whilst extending health insurance for employees’ family members and their parents aged over 75. In India, the Managing Director of an industrial conglomerate has foregone his entire salary until the company’s earnings are back to their pre-outbreak level. Board members and other senior leaders for this company will also see a 30-50% cut in their compensation.ConclusionThe primary goal of corporate governance is to ensure that management and directors make good business decisions. Given the circumstances, today, making good decisions is far from easy. We believe following the crisis, companies will broadly fall into one or more of the following three categories:

• Companies which have failed to adapt their business models and may face significant liquidity issues, with bankruptcy as a bear case;
• Companies which can show resilience in a highly uncertain and rapidly changing post-pandemic world and survive with some necessary adaptations;
• Companies that can grow faster than before, innovate, and create value for all stakeholders. These companies will not only have adapted but will have strategically thought about their business model and will have started to design and implement changes that will allow them to be future leaders in their sector(s).

Whilst boards and management teams have never been in such a situation before, now is the time to show leadership and rise to the challenges. Companies which had previously been prudent and are fortunate to sit on a healthy balance sheet and an engaged and long-term focused shareholder base, should come out stronger. Yet this alone will not suffice; robust, transparent, and exemplary governance from all senior leaders is important today, more so than ever before. Ultimately, strong governance is a prerequisite for emerging as a leader in the post-pandemic world. The winners of tomorrow will be the companies which show leadership today: the companies which look after their employees, who adapt where necessary, who (re)allocate capital to focus on the long-term, and the companies who communicate with all stakeholders more powerfully than they have ever done so before.Usman Ali is a Partner at Mobius Capital Partners1 https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/reports/SSEE_Arabesque_Paper_16Sept14.pdf2 https://www.bcg.com/publications/2016/what-makes-family-businesses-in-emerging-markets-sodifferent.aspx3 https://hbr.org/2020/04/a-crisis-playbook-for-family-businesses

Photo by Dane Deaner on Unsplash

The uncertainty and panic surrounding the Covid-19 crisis has led to rollercoaster stock markets. The extreme volatility is worrying for investors and one question I am frequently being asked is “Have we seen the bottom yet?”At this point the answer to this question is guess work. It all depends on how quickly we are able to contain the virus, how quickly a cure and a vaccine can be found and how quickly regular economic activity can be resumed.However, since I first started investing in emerging markets back in 1987 we have experienced a number of crises and bear markets including the Asian financial crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis and others. We have also witnessed and profited from the recoveries that followed. While this particular crisis is unique in the scale of the actions taken by governments around the world and their effect on economic activity, there are similarities to previous stock market crashes when one assesses the reactions of investors. Some say that this bear market is unique and we have never experienced anything like this before. But it’s important to remember that, as the late Sir John Templeton once said: “The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘this time it’s different.” Human behaviour tends to follow predictable patterns because of built-in emotions that make us human.So what can we learn from history that will enable us to make better investment decisions in times of crisis? Looking at previous bear markets can provide some indication on what we might expect in the current market environment and going forward. Therefore we took some time to study 11 stock markets (U.S, U.K., Turkey, Korea, China, Taiwan, Brazil, Japan, Thailand, India and Hong Kong ) and their bear markets since the end of the 1980s. We have not included the current bear market since it may not have ended yet.The Global PictureWe define a bear market as a decline of 20% or more over a period of at least two months. If this was followed by a 20% rise over a period of at least two months we considered a subsequent fall of 20% or more as a new bear market. Because international investors are usually more interested in U.S. Dollar returns we have chosen USD indices rather than the local currency ones.Based on these indices the average bear market decline was about 49% across all markets but the declines ranged from a low of 23% to a high of 92%. In terms of the length of time a bear market lasted (from the peak of the bull market to the lowest point in the bear phase) this was on average over a year and to be precise, approximately 15 months. But the range was from a few months to over three years. As one would expect, emerging markets proved more volatile than the developed markets with more bear markets, a higher average decline of 51% and a shorter duration of about one year.But let’s have a look at the individual markets. (Please note we are not yet counting the recent market downturn).U.S.Examining the world’s largest market, the U.S., we focused on the S&P 500 Index and found that since 1987 the market experienced only three bear markets, excluding the current one. Those three bear markets averaged a 47% decline and ranged between a low of 34% and a high of 57%. The length of time of the bear markets ranged between three months and three years and averaged 17 months.U.K.In the U.K. the market (in USD terms) was more volatile than in the U.S. Since 1987 the FTSE 100 Index (USD) experienced six bear markets with declines ranging between 65% and 23% with the average being 38%. Like the U.S. the average length of time was 17 months for the bear markets with a range of 4 months to three years.TurkeyTurning to emerging markets, we found that the Turkish market was highly volatile. This is one reason why this market has been very attractive to some investors who love volatility since it provides them with more opportunities. During the time period starting in 1988 the Turkish market experienced 10 bear markets which showed an average decline of 64% with a range of between 81% and 46%. The average length of the bear markets was 14 months but ranged between a high of three years and a low of 4 months.KoreaNext on our list was Korea, another volatile market with nine bear markets. Those bear markets averaged a decline of 49% ranging from a low of 27% to a high of 86%. The average time length of all the bear markets was 17 months and ranged between 4 months and three years.ChinaWe found that the China market as indicated by the MSCI China Index had a total of eight bear markets averaging a decline of 56% and ranging between a low of 33% to a high of 82%. The average length of time was 14 months with the longest period being more than two years and the shortest five months.The MSCI China Index was launched on Oct 31,1995. Data prior to the launch date is back-tested dataTaiwanWe would expect the Taiwan market with its economy so closely tied to China to perform similarly but that was not the case. The Taiwan market proved to be more volatile with 11 bear markets between 1988 and 2019. The average decline was lower than in China with 48% ranging between a high of 80% and a low of 23%. The length of the bear markets ranged between a few months and almost two years with the average being 11 months.BrazilThe Brazilian market experienced 11 bear markets during the period averaging 56% decline and ranging between a decline of 75% and 35%. Average time length was 12 months ranging between a few months and almost three years.IndiaIn India, the market experienced nine bear markets averaging a decline of 44% ranging between a high of 71% and a low of 24%. The average time length for the Indian markets was a little over one year.JapanIn Japan there were seven bear markets averaging a decline of 42% and ranging between a fall of 62% to 24%. The longest bear market in Japan lasted more than three years and the shortest 9 months with the average at 24 months.ThailandThe Thai market was rather volatile with ten bear markets averaging a decline of 46% and ranging between a high fall of 92% and a low of 24%. The average length of time was nine months.Hong KongThe last market we looked at was the Hong Kong stock market, which witnessed eight bear markets since 1987. The average decline was 45% with a high of 64% and a low of 21%. The average length was 13 months.What lessons can we draw from history?So what can we learn from the above? We can see that on average bear markets declined by about 50%. The developed markets declined even less on average. In terms of the length, a bear market lasted on average more than a year. Bear markets in emerging markets were on average lasting shorter than bear markets in developed markets. This is important, as I believe the critical question is not only what the bottom is but how long it will last. You will need the cash reserves to continue to gradually buy and hold for what may seem like a long time.So at what stage are we now? In reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic markets went down between 20 and 30% so much less than the average 50% we have seen above. The market swings have been wild on the upside and the downside. As I write this piece the indexes might already have moved higher or lower.This kind of volatility is not unusual. If we look at the behaviour of the indices in bear markets we see that this sort of up and down is part of the game. So unfortunately, the recent positive movement in many markets does not necessarily mean that we will see a continuous upward trend. There will always be backtracking and corrections along the way. This seems to be confirmed by the historical data from previous bear markets. However, the figures mentioned above are averages and averages are exactly that. The range can be wide. Many bear markets went down far less than 50% so it’s probably a good time to start nibbling but leave enough firepower to continue buying if the markets retreat more.The full economic cost of the shutdowns around the world cannot be accurately assessed and will, of course, be quite different from one industry to another and one company to another. We merely need to keep our eye on the long term developments and take an optimistic stance: Of the many years since 1987 when I’ve been investing in emerging markets all over the world I can say that there are two conclusions that I can confidently ascribe to: (1) all emerging markets experience bear markets, and (2) all emerging markets recover from those bear markets and experience a bull market. It’s very much like the conclusions of Arnold Toynbee, the famous historian and scholar of civilisations since ancient times. After all the years of study he said that there were two conclusions that he could ascribe to: first, all civilisations rise and, second, all civilisations fall. The wonderful thing about this phenomenon in emerging markets is that the rise and fall of the markets is relatively frequent and the bear markets tend to be shorter than the bull markets. So if you are a patient and disciplined investor you can purchase bargain stocks in the bear phases when everyone else is selling.At the rate the coronavirus is spreading globally there might be worse to come but stock markets are starting to price that in. And given the efforts now undertaken by governments, central banks and scientists to contain the crisis I am confident we will see containment followed by a recovery on the horizon but as history teaches us it might not be for another year.

Over the last few days, we have seen significant volatility across all major stock markets as we start to see the impact of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Businesses have been temporarily closed, investments are being held back, employees are working from home, supermarkets are being emptied by panic-buyers and the business climate has deteriorated considerably. Understandably there is a sense of panic. This week with Italy an entire democratic country has been placed under quarantine. These are unprecedented times.Furthermore, as the virus first surfaced in China, it has hit the country particularly hard. This is critical for the global economy, as China is now the world’s largest manufacturing centre and an important source of raw materials. We believe there will definitely be an impact on global growth. While it is difficult to speculate on an exact figure at this stage, we estimate it could be around half a percent. As the crisis continues to develop in Europe and North America, it could be even higher.Given this backdrop, the portfolio of the Mobius Emerging Markets Fund has naturally been affected. Two of our holdings in China will likely be the most impacted. One is a company active in the fast food industry (Yum China) and the other in the entertainment sector (IMAX China). Naturally, they have suffered from the quarantine measures taken by the Chinese government to contain the spread of the virus.The recent news flow from China is more encouraging with newly reported cases declining day by day (down to 24 new cases on 11 March) and we are expecting performance to improve again. It seems China is on the road to recovery. A survey by Made-in-China.com—one of the main platforms connecting Chinese suppliers and global buyers—found that by late February, 80% of manufacturing firms had resumed operations.Overall, the Mobius Emerging Markets Fund has been less affected by the recent volatility than others. The fund outperformed the MSCI Emerging Market Index by more than 7% in the last three months and more than 3% in the last month. If you look at the MSCI EM Mid Cap Index the outperformance is even more pronounced with 10.7% and 5.9% respectively. We are looking to utilise our current cash levels to increase exposure to certain holdings that are now trading at heavily discounted valuations. We are in regular contact with all company management and continue to monitor the portfolio closely.As fundamental investors we take a long term view. Our investment horizon is 5+ years. Despite the mounting number of people infected and the worrying death toll, we believe the impact will diminish over time and the virus will eventually be contained. A tremendous amount of resources is currently being devoted to prevent the spread of the virus and at developing a vaccine.Generally, the case of the Coronavirus is a reminder of how volatile markets can turn over night. As investors we have to be prepared. Portfolios that are globally diversified address this kind of risk and are in a much better position when such events occur.

Having invested in emerging and frontier markets for over 20 years, I have discovered there is a widely held view that corporate governance standards there are generally lower than those in the developed world. Many understandably assume that this is part of the reason why these markets are classified as “emerging”. Often these concerns discourage market participants from investing in the asset class at all. While I agree that standards can be dramatically improved (across both developing and developed markets), I believe that this deficiency presents an attractive investment opportunity.In a blog at the end of last year, my colleague Greg Konieczny challenged investors to see themselves not as passive share “holders”, but as active share “owners”. At Mobius Capital Partners, we act as flag bearers for this cause. We are not discouraged when we encounter a company with a strong underlying business, but poor corporate governance. Instead, we try to understand whether the company’s board and management are interested in listening to our concerns and implementing a programme of reform. For this to be a success, it is paramount that all stakeholders display a willingness to address the deficiencies and not just pay lip service to the problem. As a result, engaging with management and understanding what truly drives them forms an integral part of our 4-6 week due diligence process before we invest in a stock.We often find ourselves pushing at an open door, and this is particularly true of companies that have a strong controlling family stake. In these instances, our proposed changes are often championed internally by the second or third generation. These individuals have returned from Western business schools with an in-depth understanding of the procedures and transparency expected of a publicly listed company. They are hungry to make these improvements and act as the catalyst for change.One of our holdings, a Turkish denim manufacturer, has already successfully introduced a long-term incentive program for executives based on share price performance and operating profit, aligning the interests of the founding family with those of the senior management and the minority shareholders. Our prior experience enabled us to propose a suitable structure.At this stage you may be asking, why is strong corporate governance so important? One early benefit is that it demonstrates to the wider market the company’s intention to be perceived as a reputable. Often it reflects the start of an evolution from a domestic orientated firm to a more international player. More importantly, strong corporate governance creates a solid foundation on which wider operational as well as social and environmental improvements can be built. This can help us unlock further value within a business and drive a re-rating.On the company level we believe an engagement approach based on partnership will play an increasingly important role in the future of active management. We do not wish to dictate to companies how to run their business, but instead help in creating the optimal conditions within which a company can realise its full potential and ensure a long term and sustainable outlook. This is reflected in our focus on ensuring companies have the appropriate board composition, introduce management incentive schemes and adopt best in class investor relations which includes best in class financial, social and environmental reporting.There are signs that national governance is also improving on the macro level in some emerging markets. For example, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced voluntary environmental and social reporting guidelines for listed companies, which will be mandatory by the end of 2020. India’s Securities and Exchange Board has introduced new mandatory “business responsibility” reports for the country’s top 500 listed companies. They are expected, in time, to be applied to all Indian businesses. And after years of scandals South Korea’s Chaebols are coming under growing national, and international pressure to reform their antiquated corporate governance arrangements.Corporate governance reform seems to be on the agenda in both emerging and “frontier” markets, and for good reason. The evidence reveals a strong link between corporate governance reform and improvements in financial performance. By integrating corporate governance, and environmental and social factors in our investment process, we can significantly reduce the risk profiles of our portfolios. This translates into higher risk-adjusted returns, and associated benefits for companies, all their stakeholders, and emerging markets as a whole.

**Marcin, you have just come back from a trip to Brazil meeting with companies and investors. How did you find the mood six months after Bolsonaro was inaugurated as president?**The mood in the business community has changed since my last visit to Brazil in December, which was shortly after Bolsonaro’s inauguration. There is less optimism now. Both investors and the electorate are waiting for actual progress on the reforms that the newly-elected president has promised, particularly on pension reform. We agree that reforming the pension system is crucial for the economic development of the country. Currently, Brazil’s spending on social security is among the highest in the world. It continuously adds to the high government debt which the IMF estimates will reach almost 90 per cent of GDP this year.**Recently analysts cut their 2019 growth forecasts for Brazil. Does that impact your investment approach to the country?**Not really. The Brazilian economy has gone through a difficult time over the last 4-5 years and there is a lot of room for improvement once reforms begin to progress. Currently, the economy remains depressed and the 1Q19 GDP numbers of -0.2% q/q and +0.5% y/y[1] failed to show an acceleration of growth. However, there are some positive signs: car sales for May 2019 were strong (21.6% YoY)[2], whilst supermarket sales (Abras)[3] grew 8.1% YoY in April (in real terms).We believe that consumer and investor confidence will improve once the pension reform, in particular, is approved and the reform program springs into action.What do you see as the biggest risks and opportunities for Brazil at the moment?The social security reform bill has now moved to the Lower House Special Committee where amendments may be made. The key issue is to what degree projected savings from the reform might be watered-down. The initial proposal foresaw over BRL1.2 trn (c. 18% of nominal GDP) in savings over 10 years. If this falls significantly, which a first congressional committee report seemed to indicate, this might have a negative impact on the Brazilian equity market.Furthermore, apart from the significant increase in debt over the last 15 years, which now limits the government’s ability to increase spending through borrowing to stimulate the economy, there remain a number of structural issues left behind by the previous governments: the significant share of long-term unemployment (5 million workers have been looking for a job for more than a year; 3 million for more than 2 years) has led to a loss in skills and productive capability. The capital-labour ratio in the economy has declined due to insufficient, mis-allocated, and poor-quality investment for a number of years. And with investment lagging, much of the nation’s infrastructure and many public services are in decay.All of this will take time to correct itself. However, we believe Bolsonaro’s reform program, which is centred around free market policies, is the right way forward.Despite the downbeat mood, opportunities remain.Almost 22 years after Brazil undertook one of the largest privatization efforts in history, the new Bolsonaro administration is aiming to repeat, and perhaps exceed, the previous round. There are as many as a hundred state-owned companies which could be liquidated or privatized as part of Bolsonaro’s privatization plan. With some of those state-owned companies being among the largest in the country, such a move would add significant liquidity to the stock market and provide opportunities for investors like ourselves.If the Bolsonaro administration follows through on the privatization possibilities already put in the pipeline by the previous Temer administration, the government could sell nearly USD90bn (c. 5% of Brazil’s nominal GDP) over the next two years (including state stakes in Petrobras, Eletrobras, BNDES, Banco do Brasil and Caixa Economica Federal).Uncertainties remain about the size and timing of the privatisation programme, however the direction is positive – the less state involvement in the economy, the better for the longer-term outlook of the country. While long-term fiscal sustainability depends more on the social security reform than on privatization, the proceeds will nevertheless help fund the government’s transition and maintain fiscal discipline. Moreover, a well-structured privatization push would rekindle investments and improve the efficiency of the economy.Last but not least, another important item on Bolsonaro’s agenda is increasing the trade openness of the Brazilian economy. Brazil is an unusually closed economy when it comes to international trade (export plus imports as % of GDP is only 23.1% which is way below other emerging economies like India or China with 39% and 37.3% respectively))[4].If successful, this reform could lead to improved productivity and increased growth in the longer term.**What are the things you like about the Brazilian market and where do you see opportunities now?**The most differentiating feature of the Brazilian equity market compared to other emerging economies is the quality of management. You rarely find so much focus on return on invested capital (ROIC) and shareholder value creation elsewhere. In Brazil these considerations drive almost every business decision within an organization.Another characteristic of the Brazilian market is a strong desire to improve efficiencies. This is a common theme within Brazilian companies – whether it is an apparel retailer, auto parts manufacturer or a challenger bank- and is usually driven by the adoption of new technologies.During our visits we have been meeting with a number of interesting companies in the consumer, technology, education and industrials sectors. Generally, we remain cautiously optimistic on the Brazilian equity market as valuations are still at a relatively attractive level with strong earnings recovery to come once the economy returns to growth._________________________________[1]Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics[2]The Associacao Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veiculos Automotores (ANFAVEA)[3]ABRAS – Brazil Association of Supermarkets[4]EIU, 2017

Indian elections are particularly cacophonous affairs. As the largest democratic exercise in human history comes to an end after six weeks of highly charged voting, many will be relieved that normal life can resume. However, those hoping for an uneventful result may be in for a rude shock. Exit polls released after the final vote was cast on Sunday pointed to a strong Narendra Modi led BJP majority which looked increasingly unlikely just a couple of months ago. Having shocked global markets five years ago by triumphing with the strongest Indian government seen in a generation, Modi may have even bettered his performance in 2014. The polls pointed to the BJP securing over 300 seats of the 543 assembly which would represent improvement from his 2014 scalp of 282 seats. Markets celebrated with the Sensex rallying close to 4% on Monday.It is worth noting that exit polls have struggled with accuracy in the past. Whilst this should come as no surprise to readers in the UK and the US, India’s 2004 exit polls pointed to the BJP winning between 230 and 275 seats. Instead they ended up with only 187 and were kicked out of government. However since then, polling methodologies, sampling and data granularity have improved significantly which diminishes the likelihood of such a severe miscalculation.However, assuming the exit polls have some predictive power, why should this matter for investors and which elements of the reform agenda would then be prioritised?In a period of global policy turmoil, it’s clear that investors seek consistency and predictability. If an emerging market administration is willing to commit to this whilst embarking on a progressive reform agenda, the market will pay up. Whilst debates continue about whether Modi’s first five years had the hallmarks of a Bernie Sanders style administration rather than that of Ronald Reagan, solace can be found through the comfort of BJP’s fiscal conservatism and peerless focus on execution. This will remain in place. Key reforms such as a sturdier Bankruptcy Law, a well-functioning Goods and Services Tax, a flexible inflation targeting regime and success in financially including more than 300m Indians through the biometric identification system have been institutionalised. These will help expand Indian’s productive capacity and propel the country to faster and more sustainable growth. India’s longer term cost of capital will continue to fall.Looking ahead, a BJP led government will likely take less risks in the short term. The rural economy and small businesses have been disrupted by the short term pains of the Goods and Services Tax implementation, whilst demonetisation was largely viewed as a failed and disruptive experiment. The BJP will reward these two sectors for their continued support through a more supportive policy framework. Encouraging private sector participation in agriculture through introducing a regulatory framework for contract manufacturing would be a positive step. The development of modern, large scale warehousing and storage would reduce wastage, boost farm incomes and dampen inflationary pressures.The longer term reforms of addressing bottlenecks in the factor markets of land and labour will be perhaps be the defining feature of Modi’s next five years. Land acquisition continues to be a debilitating constraint to the creation of mid and large scale infrastructure and setting up businesses. Difficulty in acquiring land continues to be the top regulatory hurdle that stalls projects. Addressing this through a transparent auction process, a creative alternative form of compensation and the acceleration of the digitalisation of land records will go some way to relieve manufacturing stress. Tight and constraining labour laws continue to hinder the scale up of organised large scale manufacturing. State government approval is required for firms employing more than 100 workers to lay off staff. It is instructive that the proportion of businesses that employ more than 100 people in India is dwarfed by the respective share in South East Asia and China. India’s much vaunted ‘demographic dividend’ could quickly deteriorate into a ticking time bomb unless job creation is addressed.Clearly a challenging agenda is set out for whoever emerges as India’s next premier. If the exit polls are correct, whilst continuity will remain in place with Modi at the helm, much change will be required to drive India onto a higher plane of growth.

How frequently have you heard of the following terms over the last 12 months: ESG, ESG integrated, impact, thematic, responsible investing, sustainable investing, ethical investing? If you tend to group all of these terms together, you are probably not alone. As I write this post, I’m sitting in the airport in Zurich, where I’ve been meeting prospective clients. At the start of one meeting here with a family office, the principal sceptically stated, “oh, not another sustainability fund!” Wariness from clients today is unsurprising given the vast number of terms which are thrown around in the public domain, combined with an abundance of products which are somehow linked to ESG.However, the active ownership approach we take at Mobius Capital Partners is differentiated from mainstream sustainability investing. Our investment philosophy focuses on actively improving governance standards and delivering a clear ESG pathway for our portfolio companies in emerging and frontier markets. As we have previously written about governance issues [see post “Governance is Key” by Mark Mobius], in this post, I will focus on how we approach ESG integration, and in particular, how environmental and social factors impact pricing, growth, cost savings, and risk.Whilst there has been considerable progress in Europe and the U.S. with regards to ESG standards, many companies in emerging and frontier markets lag behind their peers in developed markets. This is particularly true in small and mid-cap companies in emerging markets which are often run by entrepreneurs and families. These companies are more likely to suffer from poor investor relations, sub-optimal corporate governance, and provide limited protection to minority shareholders. What does this therefore mean for active investors like ourselves? The approach one takes in these markets requires rigorous research and a tailored engagement plan. Our bottom-up fundamental research considers all relevant information which can improve a company’s operations. We do not constrain ourselves to conventional definitions of ‘ESG’ but also assess political, macroeconomic, legal, and accounting factors. As global emerging and frontier market investors, we are cognisant of the variation of regulatory frameworks throughout our investment universe. Accordingly, we do not employ a blanket policy across our investments, but rather, focus our efforts on our customised active ownership strategy, which assesses companies on a pragmatic case-by-case basis.There are essentially two elements to this approach:

1. Governance

Our area of engagement is very broad, but is focused on increasing long-term shareholder value. Potential governance improvements may be made in, but are not limited to: capital allocation, management remuneration structures, board independence, balance sheet restructuring, investor relations, capital structures, acquisitions, and divestures.When we identify such problems through deep research, we address these in private meetings by partnering with management teams, boards, and controlling shareholders. We strongly believe that a regular constructive dialogue is the bedrock of the active ownership approach we pursue.

1. Environmental and Social

Our analysis goes beyond assessing pure environmental and social factors. We recognise that each company and sector presents unique environmental and social challenges. We focus on how these can be improved and how this can have a positive impact on long-term financial performance. This encourages us to concentrate on material factors such as selling practices, energy efficiency or employee relations. These can, in turn, impact operational areas such as pricing power, market share, operating costs, employee retention, and productivity.We believe environmental and social factors can impact emerging market companies in the following ways:1) Pricing: companies with strong quality assurance, a robust and transparent supply chain, high quality labelling, and packaging will often benefit from a stronger brand over their peers. This allows companies to charge premium prices, and accordingly, benefit from both topline growth as well as the ability to offer higher margin products or services. Taking the infant milk formula sector in China as an example, it is evident that poor supply chain and quality standards, combined with suboptimal health and safety standards hurt domestic Chinese players in the sector. During the melanine scandal in China in 2008, more than 300,000 babies became sick or were hospitalised. As a result, millions of Chinese consumers lost trust in domestic brands and turned to premium foreign brands. The top 20 foreign infant milk formula companies in China increased their market share from 35% in 2007 to over 53% in 2017. At the same time, domestic brands witnessed their market share decline from 41% in 2007 to 30% in 2017. It is also worth noting that prices for infant milk formula have almost doubled over the past 15 years.2) Growth and cost savings: companies with a market leading sustainability profile will benefit from a powerful brand which allows them to grow faster over their peers. Such companies benefit from growing their market share whilst potentially expanding into new categories and segments. For example a bank in Bangladesh which is known for microfinance lending to women has seen faster loan growth compared to its peers. Companies which run their business operations in a sustainable way should also benefit from higher margins and profitability. Whether this relates to reducing their input costs by lowering their utility bills to increasing productivity by lowering employee turnover. One example of this is an Indian beverage company which has seen a 600bps improvement in its gross margin due to lowering its water usage and offering customers the opportunity to recycle bottles. In resource constrained markets, such measures are critical to optimise efficiency whilst yielding tangible results for shareholders. 3) Risk: a body of recent research shows that companies with high ESG credentials benefit from a lower risk premium. This is captured via a lower cost of capital, lower business risk, as well as better access to financing. One example of this is in the banking sector, where we now see several emerging market banks assessing the ESG credentials of companies before they underwrite corporate loans. Companies with higher ESG standards are accordingly benefiting from a lower cost of funding.Evidently, integrating environmental and social factors into an emerging and frontier markets portfolio entails more than relying on quantitative scoring and third-party research. It requires a deep understanding of the business, a thorough analysis of what drives value and a strong awareness of a company’s resource productivity.During our many years of investing in emerging and frontier markets, we have observed a strong link between ESG engagement and improvements in the financial performance of our portfolio companies, particularly in the small and mid-cap sector. We strongly believe that capturing the improvement in ESG standards in emerging and frontier markets offers a greater opportunity to generate long-term returns whilst simultaneously mitigating risk.

What we read and whyMy reading is rather eclectic. In fact, algorithms of online booksellers would find it quite difficult to provide me with new recommendations based on my previous purchases.For example, in the last few months I have read “ The Facebook Effect” by David Kirkpatrick, “Trump, the Blue Collar President” by Anthony Scaramucci, “Bad Blood” by John Carreyrou, “Anyway you Can” by Annette Bosworth and “Sycamore Row” by John Grisham. So I’ve gone from internet successes to political commentators, to financial scandals, to healthy living to legal mysteries – in a few weeks.“The Facebook Effect” is a very interesting insight into the rapid growth of Facebook from a small undergraduate online community to the global phenomenon it is today, driven by a visionary Zuckerberg whose overriding ambition has been to connect everyone in the world. The book provides a well-rounded assessment of Facebook’s “rise to power” and includes a critical analysis of how social media has changed our lives, for better or for worse.“Trump, the Blue Collar President” is a highly entertaining and insightful read about Donald Trump by the former and very short lived White House Communications Director Anthony Scarramucci. Scarramucci was fired days after his appointment because of an indiscreet conversation with a reporter in which he lashed out at a number of senior White House officials. While Scarramucci remains a Trump supporter he does not hold back in the book on criticisms either.“Bad Blood” by the Wall Street Journal Reporter John Carreyrou is the incredible true story of an ambitious young woman who promised to revolutionize the medical industry with a small device that would enable a wide variety of blood tests with only one drop of blood. She was able to raise hundreds of millions of venture capital funding and persuaded very prominent names to join her board including former Secretary of State Shultz. Only the device didn’t work. The company went bankrupt when Carreyrou revealed that the firm was cheating by secretly using larger, sophisticated equipment in order to obtain the required results.In “Anyway You Can” the author “Dr. Boz” describes how the keto diet helped her cancer-stricken mother to survive. The diet focuses on high fat and low carb consumption in order to increase the ketones and reduce the insulin in the blood, which has highly beneficial effects on general health as well as weight issues. I’ve tried it and it works.Finally, John Grisham’s bestselling legal thriller “Sycamore Row” takes place in the American South. A white man commits suicide and leaves most of his wealth to his black maid, much to the chagrin of his immediate family. There is a surprise ending which ties up the various threads of the story beautifully. A riveting read.

**MCP: Can you tell us about your career up to date?**Marcin: My passion for capital markets and investing dates back to university. (My first stock investment at the time proved to be a rather painful experience!) This led me on to an internship at an asset management company and the realization that this was the career path I wanted to pursue.Prior to joining Mobius Capital Partners, I was part of the emerging markets equity team at Franklin Templeton where I co-managed the Eastern European Fund and was responsible for sourcing investment opportunities from the region. I was also a member of both the Templeton’s emerging market private equity strategy as well as the active ownership group – two initiatives that deepened my interest in active investing.**Why did you decide to join Mobius Capital Partners?**I strongly believe in the investment strategy of the firm and the team behind it. I am convinced that an investment strategy which combines deep fundamental research with active ownership can deliver positive risk-adjusted results.By actively engaging with portfolio companies, we aim at creating value by improving their ESG framework and positioning as well as their perception among other investors. At the same time we work with the companies to improve their business operations.During my years at Templeton I observed that the greatest opportunities in emerging markets could be found within the small and mid-cap space. These companies are still relatively undiscovered by international investors and often offer above average growth prospects.Mobius Capital Partners combines all these elements in one strategy and I am excited to be working with their experienced team on the execution of this unique approach.**Where do you see the greatest potential in Emerging and Frontier Markets?**In the current environment we see plenty of opportunities across different geographies. The last twelve months have been particularly difficult for emerging markets as concerns about the trade war and China’s slowdown have negatively impacted many EM currencies and market valuations. But depreciated currencies and low valuations have created opportunities for investors. For example, we see significant potential in the consumer and technology related sectors, which present the largest number of companies with sustainably growing business modelsFurthermore, the vast majority of companies in our investment universe are not familiar with the concept of ESG and the impact it may have on their valuation over the long term, so there is an interesting upside potential there.When it comes to particular countries, I do believe that the Brazilian equity markets offer countless opportunities as the economy is just about to recover after several difficult years. With the new government under President Bolsonaro’s leadership, we are positive about the prospects for the economy and see a number of opportunities in the consumer and industrials related space there.**Why do you believe in ESG investing?**I personally believe that ESG is nothing new to the industry – many investors have previously paid attention to the environmental, social and governance risk factors in their investments, at least to some degree. But I am glad to see that ESG has gained more prominence. By taking ESG factors into account, investors can significantly reduce the risk profile of their investments, which over the long term not only translates into positive risk-adjusted returns, but also positively impacts all stakeholders. I am convinced this is the future of investing.In emerging markets, the “G-overnance” part of ESG investing plays a particularly important role. Despite the significant progress made in recent years, most EM companies still lag behind their developed-markets peers in this respect. There remains great potential for improvements in terms of how EM companies are governed and how minority investors are treated.**Your home country, Poland, has recently been upgraded from an “emerging market” to a “Developed country” by the FTSE Russell, the first country in almost a decade to be upgraded, and the first in Central and Eastern European. What in your opinion were the (economic) milestones since the fall of the Soviet Union, allowing for this re-rating?**Poland’s modern history has indeed been very complex and the country has undergone profound changes economically, politically and socially over the past three decades. Poland’s entry into the European Union in 2004 was a key milestones in our recent history. It created a big opportunity for Polish corporates who were now able to access the common market and it provided significant funding. But possibly most importantly for the first time Poles were able to work and study abroad. This I believe contributed to Poland becoming the dynamic and very entrepreneurial country it is today.**In another life, what would be your dream job?**I could imagine myself as a travel writer, – penning travel guides at some exciting off-the-beaten track location. Even though I cannot travel now as often as I used to, I remain a passionate backpacker, excited about getting to know new cultures, people, places and – last but no least – cuisine! (the spicier, the better!).