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Investors are always concerned about risk particularly in times of market uncertainty or volatility. The “Value at Risk” (VaR) calculations that banks and other institutions developed in order to determine how much could be lost in the bank’s trading positions on any given day is based on historical volatility of markets. However, once financial crises hit it becomes evident that losses can be much greater than the what the models predicted.Although the theory of a bell-shaped curve distribution sounds good, the reality is that markets often do not obey those theories. Investors can be lulled into feeling secure when markets are moving up steadily and volatility is decreasing. At such times it is tempting to pile more money into the markets, thus causing them to continuously climb and exhibit low volatility. However once the trend is broken and a “black swan” event takes place volatility can skyrocket as the market gyrates up and down violently.A brief history of risk reductionDerivatives are not a new phenomenon. In fact they have been around since the beginning of trading, originally created to reduce uncertainty or risk. When a buyer of, say, grapes agreed to buy from a farmer in the future when that farmer had his harvest a derivative was created.A buyer wanted to fix the price he would pay for a certain product at a future date so he could adequately plan, while the seller also wanted to fix the price so he could expect a given income in the future. But as the market grew, gaming entered the picture so investors not necessarily interested in the actual transaction wanted to bet instead on the outcome of certain transactions.The growth in derivatives popularity and complexity has been dramatic. Securities that derive their value from something else amount to over $500 trillion according to the Bank for International Settlements.As the creativity of gamers and investors know no bounds, there are now any number of derivatives covering a wide range of operations and not necessarily products.There even exists an index on volatility itself and a number of derivatives opportunities around it. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s VIX index measures the expected volatility of the US stock market over the next 30 days as indicated by option prices. The theory is with the index you are measuring the level of investor anxiety since the theories of the “Efficient Market” define risk as volatility.Measuring riskHarry Markowitz, who developed so-called “modern portfolio theory”, published an article in 1952 that argued investment returns should be judged against the amount of risk taken. Of course the concept of risk was too vague and difficult to measure so he used volatility, or variance, as a proxy for risk. So if one particular stock or index was more volatile than others, investors should expect better returns in order to justify the increased “risk”. He won the Nobel Prize in 1994 for his theories.Following on this, William Sharpe, another Nobel prize-winning economist and a disciple of Markowitz, developed the Sharpe Ratio. This ratio compares the returns of the fund manager to the volatility of his performance subtracting the returns of a risk-free asset such as cash.Risk enduranceThe application of these theories has not resulted in a magic formula for consistent, excellent returns for investors but at least they give us some theoretical measures we can use in the never-ending battle for investment survival.

I was recently asked a series of questions on Brazil. Here are the questions and my answers:Q1. What’s your current perspective on Brazil? A: My view on Brazil might best be described as “concerned”. This is because the current desire for complete reform of the government could slow as a result of the continued popularity of Lula and his supporters. This could lead to a slackening of the reform movement or even its complete demise.Q2. One year ago, you mentioned structural reforms were still expected to be implemented in Brazil. Recent public opinion polls show that most centrist, reformist candidates are having trouble gaining traction. How do you see the political risk in Brazil? Has the risk of turning away from the path of structural reforms increased? A: Yes this is a real problem and heightens the political risk. The “lavo jato” scandal was a watershed moment and ushered in a tremendous shift in public consciousness, with calls for a change in how the country is governed. However now a weakened reformist candidate points to problems going forward.Q3. Regarding the stock market, do you think Brazilian shares are trading at attractive levels, compared to other emerging market peers? What are your favourite sectors/stocks at this moment? A: Brazilian shares generally are not trading at bargain levels but there are some well managed firms that look attractive. Our favourites are companies with good corporate governance who have resisted the temptation to engage in corrupt practices and respect shareholder rights. In regards to industry sectors, consumer products and distribution groups are the most attractive to us. However, there are also some manufacturing firms who have a strong international positions and are able to earn substantial foreign exchange, which also makes them of interest.Q4. The Brazilian Real recently weakened to close to 4.00 per dollar and economic activity data points to a weaker-than-expected recovery. Do you think these two factors may reinforce the downside risks to company earnings? A: Actually the weak Real could be a blessing in disguise since export oriented firms will do much better in overseas markets. Generally the weak currency, if combined with continued increases in productivity, could make the market more attractive.Q5. What strategy should Brazil’s central bank look to adopt in the current market conditions? A: The central bank in Brazil should focus on working towards a liquid foreign exchange market so that the currency can find its market level. It should not try to control the exchange rate since such expenditures are a waste of precious foreign exchange and stimulate further exits. The Brazilian central bank should do all it can to persuade the government to streamline investment procedures, which will encourage both domestic and foreign investment.

Investing in emerging and frontier markets allows me to travel around the world and experience a wide range of cultures and traditions. However, across all seven continents some things remain a constant, and one of these is a love of football.With a global audience of over 1 billion, it often seems the whole planet is glued to the World Cup. It brings together communities, villages and countries. This is particularly true in Africa. Once again, the countries representing the vast continent have played well and been unlucky not to advance further in the competition. While an African nation will not triumph on the 15 July, in a series of blogs over the coming weeks, I would like to shed some light on a more significant achievement. An economic victory.I will start by focusing on Senegal, given one of my personal highlights of the group stages was Senegal’s 2-0 win against Poland, evoking memories of their result against France in 2002.Historically, in both football and economic terms, things in Senegal have not always been easy. The country ranks number nine in the world for illiteracy, with 58% of the Senegalese population not being able to read, while 46.7% live in poverty. Both issues are largely linked to Senegal’s agriculture focused workforce, which is heavily affected by extreme weather conditions like droughts.However recently Senegal has certainly made people take note – and not only by scoring goals. In 2017 the country was able to grow by 7.2% – which is more than China or India. Since their victory against France 16 years ago, Senegal has had the second highest GDP growth among all Africa’s 2018 World Cup entrants. This should be taken in context however, as the country’s GDP was $16.5bn in 2017, which is only slightly above the cost of hosting the World Cup in Russia ($14.2bn). Senegal’s currency is also performing well, with an average inflation of just 1.5% per year since 2002, making it one of the most stable in Africa.While Senegal does have some challenges, there also is much promise. After winning independence from France in 1960, the country has only had 4 presidents, but notably every transition has been peaceful. It is frequently seen as one of the most politically and economically stable countries in the region. This solid political foundation and recent economic growth provides the perfect conditions for Senegal to develop into a prosperous nation. The future looks bright both on and off the pitch.